Maintain a healthy scepticism when confronted with “facts” justifying a position

Peter Drucker once remarked, “Tell anyone over the age of twenty-one to find a set of statistics to support a predetermined conclusion, and they will be able to do it”. Drucker’s remark strikes many people as cynical, yet we should bear it in mind whenever we are presented by a set of “facts”. There have been numerous cases of organisational policy changes being proposed based on partial evidence. Some of us may even have been the instigators.

In a setting far removed from organisations, Webb and his colleagues reviewed some research carried out into suicide notes (2000). They made the simple, yet telling, point that although inferences have been drawn from the content of suicide notes, less than a quarter of all suicides write notes. The writers and the non-writers are not the same population. As a consequence, interpreting the reasons for suicides, and changing policies based on such notes, ignores the seventy-five percent of the relevant population about whom we have no information.

In any management context, make sure that any data or facts presented in support of policy or other changes are strong enough to support the conclusions. The sound and sparks of personal axes being ground should always put you on your guard.

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